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Post by ChrisB on May 20, 2016 7:46:04 GMT
I wonder what would have happened?
Imagine a world where CD was a commercial failure. It doesn't matter why - let's just say it was as big a flop worldwide as Laserdisc was in the UK. Where would we be now? Would we have settled on something better, worse or rebranded CD? How long would we have stuck with records as a major medium? Perhaps streaming would have arrived earlier.
What do you think?
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Post by pre65 on May 20, 2016 7:50:45 GMT
Perhaps DAT would have been a success for the consumer market ?
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Post by ChrisB on May 20, 2016 7:55:50 GMT
Yes, that's where I was thinking it may have gone too. But what would have happened then and where would we be now? That's the bit that I've been chewing over.
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Post by John on May 20, 2016 8:05:49 GMT
I think perhaps also DVD would have moved more successfully to Audio (DVD A)
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Post by pre65 on May 20, 2016 8:09:31 GMT
I think ,in this life, we are best not to worry, or at least not to worry about things we have no control over.
So, apart from my last post, I don't care to think about your question, it serves no purpose at all. We are where we are and that's it.
I have some music on the computer hard drive, and a Squeezebox touch. I like what it does. Next step (for me) was going to be a Vortexbox type setup, but I still like to handle CDs. So for the moment "progress" has halted.
One day I will probably do something to increase my streaming capacity, but I'm not going to worry about it.
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Post by ChrisB on May 20, 2016 8:21:20 GMT
It's OK, I'm really not worried about it, I promise! And nor should you be, but it's interesting to consider what may have happened and what opportunities may have been overlooked.
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Post by zippy on May 20, 2016 8:56:01 GMT
My guess is (and I'm really surprised this hasn't happened) that the industry would have gone for memory cards
- easy to store and use, work just as well on phones and portable players as on hifi equipment, cheap(ish) to produce, don't rely on a particular file format...
What's not to like ?
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Post by Tim on May 20, 2016 11:56:39 GMT
You think too mutt Chris
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Post by MartinT on May 20, 2016 13:16:25 GMT
Philips wanted to go 14-bit (because those were the DACs they had in plentiful supply) whereas Sony wanted 16-bit. Optical formats had proven the way with backup data drives and Laserdisc (which was a reasonable success worldwide). Flash memory was nowhere near good enough for storing even a compressed album at that time, and compression techniques were rudimentary and developed for voice telephone traffic.
My guess would be a split market with different competing optical formats, just like tape ended up being.
Luckily for us, Philips and Sony got together and created one of the lasting global standards: Red Book.
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Post by Slinger on May 20, 2016 13:17:28 GMT
Should I get my 8-Track carts out of cryogenic storage yet?
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2016 15:03:09 GMT
If CD hadn't taken off in the 80s we would have had cassettes and vinyl dominating longer - obvious. Mini disc might have caught on as a cassette replacement and the vinyl revival wouldn't have been needed which means there wouldn't be idiots asking £100 for fairly common records. I suppose a better digital format would have come along and if it was SACD or DVDA it might have had more success. Probably wouldn't have stopped the popularity of downloads/streaming etc.
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Post by Stratmangler on May 20, 2016 22:24:33 GMT
Would Elcaset have gained the market foothold that Sony thought it would? Pondering such ifs and buts is a waste of time. We are where we are because CD wasn't a flop, and the technology we now take for granted has been developed as offshoots of that technology. Because of CD we had DVD being developed, and because DVD had requirements for greater stored data than CD could manage it drove optical data playback systems into new areas. I thought you'd been on the pop Chris, but then I looked at the time of your OP. Nothing booked in the diary today?
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Post by ChrisB on May 20, 2016 22:33:23 GMT
No pop involved me ol' mucker. It's something I've pondered over for quite a while and still fail to consider it as time wasted - exercising your mind and imagination every once in a while is a healthy pursuit. I've mentioned before that FZ described and recognised that the technology was all there for something that we now call internet streaming long before most people had even seen a computer.
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Post by Stratmangler on May 20, 2016 23:07:37 GMT
I sometimes wonder what would have happened had Thomas Edison not invented the wax cylinder. Would the world be awash with virtuoso whistlers and lutists? I doubt it.
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Post by ChrisB on May 20, 2016 23:13:42 GMT
Well no, but the cylinder player had a lot going for it! No end of side distortion for starters. What if the concept had been developed further?
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2016 23:28:05 GMT
If CD hadn't taken off in the 80s we would have had cassettes and vinyl dominating longer - obvious. Mini disc might have caught on as a cassette replacement and the vinyl revival wouldn't have been needed which means there wouldn't be idiots asking £100 for fairly common records. I suppose a better digital format would have come along and if it was SACD or DVDA it might have had more success. Probably wouldn't have stopped the popularity of downloads/streaming etc. Pretty much sums up my thoughts too. We'd probably have had a longer reign of the Flat Earth to go with it.
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Post by Stratmangler on May 20, 2016 23:33:22 GMT
Well no, but the cylinder player had a lot going for it! No end of side distortion for starters. What if the concept had been developed further? Just consistent distortion throughout the entire recording?
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Post by ChrisB on May 20, 2016 23:52:19 GMT
The principle was a good one. It was never developed to properly exploit the potential.
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Post by MartinT on May 21, 2016 19:19:21 GMT
The cylinder was not convenient for storage or shipping. That's where the flat 78 won.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2016 12:08:30 GMT
Bin a flop: There be less arguing on forums
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